How the climate matrix was built

What the matrix is for

A first-pass climate screen, species by species, for plants used in Las Vegas nurseries, city plantings and habitat work. It is a planning tool, not a substitute for a full review of each species or local trials. Version 4.2, March 2026: 282 plants grown now and 26 recommended additions.

• Heat: tolerance of extreme heat days.
• Warm nights: tolerance of nights that no longer cool off.
• Drought: tolerance of dry soil and high evaporation.
• Establishment: how well young plants take hold.
• Local fit: how close the plant is to a Las Vegas native.

3 = higher resilience or broader fit; 2 = moderate; 1 = lower; 0 = unclear, confirm the species.

Expand 2.6 or more · Hold 2.2–2.59 · Trial / caution 1.8–2.19 · Phase down under 1.8 · plants with low confidence or an unclear name: confirm the species, then trial.

Warm nights and drought weigh more in 2040 than in 2030 because the valley is projected to get more of both.

• University of Nevada, Reno: Nevada has rising temperatures, extreme droughts, loss of snow and rising evaporative demand, and the trends are projected to continue.
• University of Nevada, Reno: urban areas are warming faster than rural areas.
• University of Nevada, Reno: heat waves will become more frequent and more severe.
• Clark County: more warm nights and fewer cold nights.
• Clark County: days above 106 °F rising from about 4 a year to 23–30 a year by mid-century.

Future rainfall totals are less certain than temperature.

Lifespan of a plant is a best estimate for one planted individual in reasonably suitable desert conditions. It varies with seed source, watering while young, soil and disturbance.

Stand persistence estimates whether a patch keeps itself going for restoration use. Low: little carryover without replanting. Moderate: persists with some new seedlings. High: likely to keep patches going if the site suits it. Very high: decades, mainly through long-lived woody or succulent plants or reliable seedling pulses.

Annuals and short-lived perennials can score better as a stand than as single plants when they reseed well. Some ornamentals live long as single plants but do not replace themselves in the wild.

BEST Academy, Las Vegas Native Species Climate Matrix v4.2 (March 2026). Methods drew on NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index, University of Nevada, Reno Extension, Clark County climate reports and the USDA PLANTS database. Examples for plants from outside the area: gazania (University of Florida), golden barrel cactus (Desert Botanical Garden), Texas mountain laurel (Oregon State University).